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Friendlies 1
Sep 8, 2024 at 2am UK
Soldier Field
NZ

Mexico
3 - 0
New Zealand

Pineda (5'), Huerta (53'), Romo (57')
Vasquez (74'), Chavez (77')
FT(HT: 1-0)

Smith (75'), Stamenic (90')

Form, Standings, Stats

All competitions
International Friendlies
Last Game: Mexico 0-0 Ecuador
Monday, July 1 at 1am in Copa America
All competitions
International Friendlies
Last Game: New Zealand 0-0 Tunisia (2-4 pen.)
Tuesday, March 26 at 8pm in International Friendlies

We said: Mexico 1-0 New Zealand

New Zealand have not faced any formidable opponents in quite some time, and we expect to see a rejuvenated Mexican squad keen to impress their new coach, eventually find a way to break them down. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Mexico win with a probability of 51.76%. A draw had a probability of 25.1% and a win for New Zealand had a probability of 23.15%.

The most likely scoreline for a Mexico win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.21%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.73%) and 2-1 (9.49%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.91%), while for a New Zealand win it was 0-1 (7.48%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 5.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Mexico would win this match.

Result
MexicoDrawNew Zealand
51.76% (-0.20800000000001 -0.21) 25.09% (0.183 0.18) 23.15% (0.031000000000002 0.03)
Both teams to score 49.63% (-0.493 -0.49)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
47.35% (-0.67 -0.67)52.65% (0.674 0.67)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
25.7% (-0.575 -0.57)74.3% (0.58 0.58)
Mexico Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
79.66% (-0.348 -0.35)20.34% (0.352 0.35)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
47.27% (-0.561 -0.56)52.73% (0.566 0.57)
New Zealand Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
62.3% (-0.343 -0.34)37.7% (0.347 0.35)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
25.52% (-0.337 -0.34)74.48% (0.342 0.34)
Score Analysis
    Mexico 51.75%
    New Zealand 23.15%
    Draw 25.09%
MexicoDrawNew Zealand
1-0 @ 12.21% (0.19 0.19)
2-0 @ 9.73% (0.046999999999999 0.05)
2-1 @ 9.49% (-0.042999999999999 -0.04)
3-0 @ 5.16% (-0.031 -0.03)
3-1 @ 5.04% (-0.078 -0.08)
3-2 @ 2.46% (-0.062 -0.06)
4-0 @ 2.06% (-0.036 -0.04)
4-1 @ 2.01% (-0.054 -0.05)
4-2 @ 0.98% (-0.035 -0.03)
Other @ 2.64%
Total : 51.75%
1-1 @ 11.91% (0.08 0.08)
0-0 @ 7.67% (0.202 0.2)
2-2 @ 4.63% (-0.065 -0.06)
Other @ 0.88%
Total : 25.09%
0-1 @ 7.48% (0.129 0.13)
1-2 @ 5.81% (-0.018000000000001 -0.02)
0-2 @ 3.65% (0.028 0.03)
1-3 @ 1.89% (-0.024 -0.02)
2-3 @ 1.5% (-0.036 -0.04)
0-3 @ 1.19% (-0.002 -0)
Other @ 1.63%
Total : 23.15%

Read more!
Read more!
Form Guide
Last Game: Mexico 0-0 Ecuador
Monday, July 1 at 1am in Copa America
Last Game: Venezuela 1-0 Mexico
Thursday, June 27 at 2am in Copa America
Last Game: Mexico 1-0 Jamaica
Sunday, June 23 at 2am in Copa America
Last Game: Mexico 2-3 Brazil
Sunday, June 9 at 2am in International Friendlies
Last Game: Mexico 0-4 Uruguay
Thursday, June 6 at 2am in International Friendlies
Last Game: Mexico 1-0 Bolivia
Saturday, June 1 at 2.30am in International Friendlies
Last Game: New Zealand 0-0 Tunisia (2-4 pen.)
Tuesday, March 26 at 8pm in International Friendlies
Last Game: Egypt 1-0 New Zealand
Friday, March 22 at 8pm in International Friendlies
Last Game: Rep. Ireland 1-1 New Zealand
Tuesday, November 21 at 7.45pm in International Friendlies
Last Game: Greece 2-0 New Zealand
Friday, November 17 at 5pm in International Friendlies
Last Game: Australia 2-0 New Zealand
Tuesday, October 17 at 7.45pm in International Friendlies
Last Game: New Zealand 1-1 Congo DR
Friday, October 13 at 5pm in International Friendlies


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