SM
| Current Group D Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | France | 3 | 3 | 6 |
| 2 | Australia | 3 | -1 | 6 |
| 3 | Tunisia | 3 | 0 | 4 |
| 4 | Denmark | 3 | -2 | 1 |
| Current Group A Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Portugal | 3 | 5 | 7 |
| 2 | Mexico | 3 | 2 | 7 |
| 3 | Russia | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| 4 | New Zealand | 3 | -7 | 0 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a New Zealand win with a probability of 38.61%. A win for Australia had a probability of 32.28% and a draw had a probability of 29.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a New Zealand win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.93%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (7.75%) and 0-2 (7.5%). The likeliest Australia win was 1-0 (11.53%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.37%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that Australia would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Australia | Draw | New Zealand |
32.28% ( 0.22) | 29.11% ( -0.25) | 38.61% ( 0.03) |
| Both teams to score 44.23% ( 0.71) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 37.55% ( 0.85) | 62.44% ( -0.85) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 17.93% ( 0.62) | 82.06% ( -0.62) |
| Australia Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 64.44% ( 0.62) | 35.56% ( -0.62) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 27.67% ( 0.63) | 72.33% ( -0.63) |
| New Zealand Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 68.64% ( 0.45) | 31.36% ( -0.45) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 32.27% ( 0.52) | 67.73% ( -0.52) |
| Score Analysis |
| Australia | Draw | New Zealand |
| 1-0 @ 11.53% ( -0.17) 2-1 @ 6.91% ( 0.1)2-0 @ 5.96% ( 0.01)3-1 @ 2.38% ( 0.07)3-0 @ 2.05% ( 0.04)3-2 @ 1.38% ( 0.06)Other @ 2.06% Total : 32.28% | 1-1 @ 13.37% ( -0.03) 0-0 @ 11.15% ( -0.36)2-2 @ 4.01% ( 0.11)Other @ 0.58% Total : 29.1% | 0-1 @ 12.93% ( -0.25) 1-2 @ 7.75% ( 0.08)0-2 @ 7.5% ( -0.05)1-3 @ 3% ( 0.07)0-3 @ 2.9% ( 0.02)2-3 @ 1.55% ( 0.06)Other @ 2.98% Total : 38.61% |
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