SM
| Current Group B Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | France | 6 | 12 | 18 |
| 2 | Greece | 7 | 6 | 12 |
| 3 | Netherlands | 6 | 3 | 12 |
| 4 | Republic of Ireland | 7 | 0 | 6 |
| 5 | Gibraltar | 6 | -21 | 0 |
| Current Group A Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Portugal | 3 | 5 | 7 |
| 2 | Mexico | 3 | 2 | 7 |
| 3 | Russia | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| 4 | New Zealand | 3 | -7 | 0 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Greece win with a probability of 64.85%. A draw had a probability of 21.3% and a win for New Zealand had a probability of 13.87%.
The most likely scoreline for a Greece win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.49%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (12.83%) and 2-1 (9.55%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.03%), while for a New Zealand win it was 0-1 (5.27%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 12.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Greece would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Greece | Draw | New Zealand |
64.85% ( -0.19) | 21.28% ( 0.02) | 13.87% ( 0.16) |
| Both teams to score 44.63% ( 0.35) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 49.32% ( 0.24) | 50.68% ( -0.24) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 27.41% ( 0.21) | 72.58% ( -0.21) |
| Greece Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 85.09% ( 0.02) | 14.91% ( -0.02) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 56.71% ( 0.03) | 43.29% ( -0.04) |
| New Zealand Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 52.45% ( 0.4) | 47.55% ( -0.4) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 17.1% ( 0.3) | 82.9% ( -0.3) |
| Score Analysis |
| Greece | Draw | New Zealand |
| 1-0 @ 13.49% ( -0.12) 2-0 @ 12.83% ( -0.11)2-1 @ 9.55% ( 0.03)3-0 @ 8.15% ( -0.06)3-1 @ 6.06% ( 0.02)4-0 @ 3.88% ( -0.03)4-1 @ 2.88% ( 0.01)3-2 @ 2.25% ( 0.03)5-0 @ 1.48% ( -0.01)5-1 @ 1.1% ( 0.01)4-2 @ 1.07% ( 0.02)Other @ 2.12% Total : 64.84% | 1-1 @ 10.03% ( 0.03) 0-0 @ 7.09% ( -0.07)2-2 @ 3.55% ( 0.05)Other @ 0.61% Total : 21.28% | 0-1 @ 5.27% ( 0.01) 1-2 @ 3.73% ( 0.05)0-2 @ 1.96% ( 0.03)1-3 @ 0.92% ( 0.02)Other @ 1.99% Total : 13.87% |
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