SM
| Current Group G Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Hungary | 4 | 6 | 10 |
| 2 | Serbia | 5 | 5 | 10 |
| 3 | Montenegro | 5 | 0 | 8 |
| 4 | Bulgaria | 5 | -5 | 2 |
| 5 | Lithuania | 5 | -6 | 2 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lebanon win with a probability of 40.17%. A win for Montenegro had a probability of 31.46% and a draw had a probability of 28.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lebanon win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.54%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.12%) and 0-2 (7.71%). The likeliest Montenegro win was 1-0 (10.75%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.21%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 1.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that Montenegro would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Montenegro | Draw | Lebanon |
31.46% ( -0.24) | 28.36% ( -0.05) | 40.17% ( 0.29) |
| Both teams to score 46.05% ( 0.06) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 39.9% ( 0.11) | 60.1% ( -0.11) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 19.69% ( 0.09) | 80.31% ( -0.09) |
| Montenegro Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 65.1% ( -0.11) | 34.9% ( 0.12) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 28.36% ( -0.12) | 71.63% ( 0.12) |
| Lebanon Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 70.73% ( 0.22) | 29.27% ( -0.22) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 34.77% ( 0.27) | 65.23% ( -0.27) |
| Score Analysis |
| Montenegro | Draw | Lebanon |
| 1-0 @ 10.75% ( -0.08) 2-1 @ 6.95% ( -0.03)2-0 @ 5.66% ( -0.06)3-1 @ 2.44% ( -0.02)3-0 @ 1.99% ( -0.03)3-2 @ 1.5% ( -0)Other @ 2.17% Total : 31.46% | 1-1 @ 13.21% ( -0.01) 0-0 @ 10.21% ( -0.04)2-2 @ 4.27% ( 0.01)Other @ 0.67% Total : 28.36% | 0-1 @ 12.54% ( 0.02) 1-2 @ 8.12% ( 0.04)0-2 @ 7.71% ( 0.06)1-3 @ 3.32% ( 0.04)0-3 @ 3.16% ( 0.04)2-3 @ 1.75% ( 0.01)1-4 @ 1.02% ( 0.02)0-4 @ 0.97% ( 0.02)Other @ 1.57% Total : 40.16% |
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