SM
| Current Group J Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Portugal | 10 | 34 | 30 |
| 2 | Slovakia | 10 | 9 | 22 |
| 3 | Luxembourg | 10 | -6 | 17 |
| 4 | Iceland | 10 | 1 | 10 |
| 5 | Bosnia-Herzegovina | 10 | -11 | 9 |
| 6 | Liechtenstein | 10 | -27 | 0 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Honduras win with a probability of 50.04%. A draw had a probability of 25.7% and a win for Iceland had a probability of 24.26%.
The most likely scoreline for a Honduras win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.39%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.49%) and 2-1 (9.33%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.17%), while for a Iceland win it was 0-1 (7.95%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 3.9% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Honduras | Draw | Iceland |
50.04% ( -0.59) | 25.7% ( 0.2) | 24.26% ( 0.39) |
| Both teams to score 49.03% ( -0.2) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 45.98% ( -0.46) | 54.02% ( 0.46) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 24.54% ( -0.39) | 75.46% ( 0.39) |
| Honduras Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 78.38% ( -0.44) | 21.62% ( 0.44) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 45.27% ( -0.68) | 54.73% ( 0.68) |
| Iceland Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 62.55% ( 0.1) | 37.44% ( -0.1) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 25.77% ( 0.09) | 74.22% ( -0.09) |
| Score Analysis |
| Honduras | Draw | Iceland |
| 1-0 @ 12.39% ( 0.05) 2-0 @ 9.49% ( -0.08)2-1 @ 9.33% ( -0.06)3-0 @ 4.85% ( -0.11)3-1 @ 4.76% ( -0.09)3-2 @ 2.34% ( -0.04)4-0 @ 1.86% ( -0.07)4-1 @ 1.82% ( -0.06)Other @ 3.19% Total : 50.03% | 1-1 @ 12.17% ( 0.08) 0-0 @ 8.09% ( 0.14)2-2 @ 4.58% ( -0.02)Other @ 0.84% Total : 25.69% | 0-1 @ 7.95% ( 0.16) 1-2 @ 5.98% ( 0.06)0-2 @ 3.91% ( 0.09)1-3 @ 1.96% ( 0.03)2-3 @ 1.5% ( -0)0-3 @ 1.28% ( 0.03)Other @ 1.68% Total : 24.26% |
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