SM
| Current Group A Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Netherlands | 3 | 4 | 7 |
| 2 | Senegal | 3 | 1 | 6 |
| 3 | Ecuador | 3 | 1 | 4 |
| 4 | Qatar | 3 | -6 | 0 |
| Current Group A Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Portugal | 3 | 5 | 7 |
| 2 | Mexico | 3 | 2 | 7 |
| 3 | Russia | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| 4 | New Zealand | 3 | -7 | 0 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Qatar win with a probability of 43.96%. A win for New Zealand had a probability of 33.58% and a draw had a probability of 22.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Qatar win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.75%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (6.08%) and 2-0 (5.55%). The likeliest New Zealand win was 1-2 (7.55%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.58%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 5.2% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Qatar | Draw | New Zealand |
43.96% ( 9.81) | 22.46% ( -4.92) | 33.58% ( -4.88) |
| Both teams to score 66.55% ( 17.03) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 66.08% ( 22.11) | 33.93% ( -22.11) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 44.22% ( 21.34) | 55.78% ( -21.34) |
| Qatar Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 83.9% ( 14.84) | 16.1% ( -14.84) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 54.5% ( 21.74) | 45.5% ( -21.73) |
| New Zealand Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 79.32% ( 7.61) | 20.68% ( -7.61) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 46.73% ( 10.74) | 53.27% ( -10.74) |
| Score Analysis |
| Qatar | Draw | New Zealand |
| 2-1 @ 8.75% ( 1.15) 1-0 @ 6.08% ( -4.18)2-0 @ 5.55% ( -0.47)3-1 @ 5.33% ( 2.35)3-2 @ 4.2% ( 2.32)3-0 @ 3.38% ( 1.03)4-1 @ 2.43% ( 1.56)4-2 @ 1.92% ( 1.37)4-0 @ 1.54% ( 0.85)4-3 @ 1.01% ( 0.78)Other @ 3.77% Total : 43.96% | 1-1 @ 9.58% ( -3.38) 2-2 @ 6.9% ( 2.09)0-0 @ 3.33% ( -5.42)3-3 @ 2.21% ( 1.42)Other @ 0.45% Total : 22.46% | 1-2 @ 7.55% ( -0.63) 0-1 @ 5.25% ( -5.8)0-2 @ 4.14% ( -2.84)1-3 @ 3.97% ( 0.52)2-3 @ 3.62% ( 1.6)0-3 @ 2.17% ( -0.77)1-4 @ 1.56% ( 0.48)2-4 @ 1.43% ( 0.79)Other @ 3.89% Total : 33.58% |
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