SM
| Current League D2 Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Estonia | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | Malta | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 3 | San Marino | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Current League B2 Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Russia | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | Israel | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 3 | Iceland | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 4 | Albania | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Iceland win with a probability of 54.37%. A win for San Marino had a probability of 23.97% and a draw had a probability of 21.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Iceland win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.67%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.69%) and 0-2 (7.67%). The likeliest San Marino win was 2-1 (6.12%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.71%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 7.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Iceland would win this match.
| Result | ||
| San Marino | Draw | Iceland |
23.97% ( 0) | 21.67% ( -0) | 54.37% ( 0) |
| Both teams to score 61.91% ( 0.02) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 63.14% ( 0.02) | 36.87% ( -0.02) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 40.96% ( 0.02) | 59.04% ( -0.02) |
| San Marino Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 71.68% ( 0.02) | 28.32% ( -0.01) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 35.95% ( 0.02) | 64.05% ( -0.01) |
| Iceland Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 86.37% ( 0.01) | 13.63% ( -0.01) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 59.21% ( 0.02) | 40.79% ( -0.02) |
| Score Analysis |
| San Marino | Draw | Iceland |
| 2-1 @ 6.12% 1-0 @ 4.87% ( -0)2-0 @ 3.07% ( -0)3-1 @ 2.58% ( 0)3-2 @ 2.57% ( 0)3-0 @ 1.29% Other @ 3.47% Total : 23.97% | 1-1 @ 9.71% ( -0) 2-2 @ 6.1% ( 0)0-0 @ 3.86% ( -0)3-3 @ 1.7% ( 0)Other @ 0.3% Total : 21.67% | 1-2 @ 9.67% 0-1 @ 7.69% ( -0.01)0-2 @ 7.67% ( -0)1-3 @ 6.42% ( 0)0-3 @ 5.09% ( -0)2-3 @ 4.05% ( 0)1-4 @ 3.2% ( 0)0-4 @ 2.54% 2-4 @ 2.02% ( 0)1-5 @ 1.28% ( 0)0-5 @ 1.01% Other @ 3.73% Total : 54.37% |
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