SM
| Current League D2 Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Estonia | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | Malta | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 3 | San Marino | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Current League D2 Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Estonia | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | Malta | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 3 | San Marino | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Malta win with a probability of 50.8%. A win for San Marino had a probability of 27.1% and a draw had a probability of 22.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Malta win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.42%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.13%) and 2-0 (6.9%). The likeliest San Marino win was 1-2 (6.65%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.74%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 7.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Malta would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Malta | Draw | San Marino |
50.8% ( -0.01) | 22.09% ( -0) | 27.1% ( 0.01) |
| Both teams to score 63.74% ( 0.02) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 64.1% ( 0.03) | 35.9% ( -0.03) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 42.01% ( 0.03) | 57.99% ( -0.04) |
| Malta Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 85.57% ( 0) | 14.43% ( -0.01) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 57.63% ( 0.01) | 42.37% ( -0.02) |
| San Marino Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 74.5% ( 0.02) | 25.5% ( -0.02) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 39.65% ( 0.03) | 60.35% ( -0.03) |
| Score Analysis |
| Malta | Draw | San Marino |
| 2-1 @ 9.42% ( -0) 1-0 @ 7.13% ( -0.01)2-0 @ 6.9% ( -0.01)3-1 @ 6.08% 3-0 @ 4.45% ( -0)3-2 @ 4.15% ( 0)4-1 @ 2.94% ( 0)4-0 @ 2.15% ( -0)4-2 @ 2.01% ( 0)5-1 @ 1.14% ( 0)4-3 @ 0.92% ( 0)Other @ 3.52% Total : 50.8% | 1-1 @ 9.74% ( -0.01) 2-2 @ 6.44% ( 0)0-0 @ 3.68% ( -0.01)3-3 @ 1.89% ( 0)Other @ 0.35% Total : 22.09% | 1-2 @ 6.65% ( 0) 0-1 @ 5.03% ( -0)0-2 @ 3.44% ( -0)1-3 @ 3.03% ( 0)2-3 @ 2.93% ( 0)0-3 @ 1.57% ( 0)1-4 @ 1.04% ( 0)2-4 @ 1% ( 0)Other @ 2.42% Total : 27.1% |
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