SM
| Current Group F Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Belgium | 8 | 18 | 20 |
| 2 | Austria | 8 | 10 | 19 |
| 3 | Sweden | 8 | 2 | 10 |
| 4 | Azerbaijan | 8 | -10 | 7 |
| 5 | Estonia | 8 | -20 | 1 |
| Current Group F Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Belgium | 8 | 18 | 20 |
| 2 | Austria | 8 | 10 | 19 |
| 3 | Sweden | 8 | 2 | 10 |
| 4 | Azerbaijan | 8 | -10 | 7 |
| 5 | Estonia | 8 | -20 | 1 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sweden win with a probability of 76.95%. A draw had a probability of 15.8% and a win for Estonia had a probability of 7.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sweden win was 2-0 with a probability of 15.41%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (13.47%) and 3-0 (11.75%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.33%), while for a Estonia win it was 0-1 (3.21%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Sweden in this match and our data analysis correctly predicted the win for Sweden.
| Result | ||
| Sweden | Draw | Estonia |
76.95% ( -0.05) | 15.85% ( -0.03) | 7.2% ( 0.08) |
| Both teams to score 37.69% ( 0.5) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 53.8% ( 0.44) | 46.2% ( -0.44) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 31.5% ( 0.41) | 68.49% ( -0.42) |
| Sweden Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 89.84% ( 0.1) | 10.15% ( -0.1) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 66.62% ( 0.23) | 33.37% ( -0.23) |
| Estonia Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 41.95% ( 0.51) | 58.04% ( -0.51) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 10.38% ( 0.28) | 89.62% ( -0.28) |
| Score Analysis |
| Sweden | Draw | Estonia |
| 2-0 @ 15.41% ( -0.16) 1-0 @ 13.47% ( -0.2)3-0 @ 11.75% ( -0.07)2-1 @ 8.39% ( 0.05)4-0 @ 6.72% ( -0.01)3-1 @ 6.4% ( 0.07)4-1 @ 3.66% ( 0.05)5-0 @ 3.08% ( 0.01)3-2 @ 1.74% ( 0.05)5-1 @ 1.67% ( 0.03)6-0 @ 1.17% ( 0.01)4-2 @ 1% ( 0.03)Other @ 2.48% Total : 76.93% | 1-1 @ 7.33% ( 0.01) 0-0 @ 5.89% ( -0.11)2-2 @ 2.28% ( 0.05)Other @ 0.34% Total : 15.85% | 0-1 @ 3.21% ( -0.01) 1-2 @ 1.99% ( 0.04)Other @ 2% Total : 7.2% |
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