SM
| Current Group F Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Belgium | 5 | 12 | 13 |
| 2 | Austria | 5 | 8 | 13 |
| 3 | Sweden | 5 | 3 | 6 |
| 4 | Azerbaijan | 4 | -9 | 1 |
| 5 | Estonia | 5 | -14 | 1 |
| Current Group E Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Albania | 5 | 5 | 10 |
| 2 | Czech Republic | 4 | 5 | 8 |
| 3 | Moldova | 5 | 0 | 8 |
| 4 | Poland | 5 | -2 | 6 |
| 5 | Faroe Islands | 5 | -8 | 1 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sweden win with a probability of 55.63%. A draw had a probability of 25% and a win for Moldova had a probability of 19.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sweden win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.03%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.25%) and 2-1 (9.37%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.68%), while for a Moldova win it was 0-1 (7.28%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Sweden would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Sweden | Draw | Moldova |
55.63% ( -0.18) | 24.96% ( -0.04) | 19.4% ( 0.22) |
| Both teams to score 45.12% ( 0.44) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 43.96% ( 0.4) | 56.04% ( -0.4) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 22.88% ( 0.32) | 77.12% ( -0.33) |
| Sweden Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 79.88% ( 0.08) | 20.12% ( -0.09) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 47.62% ( 0.13) | 52.38% ( -0.14) |
| Moldova Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 56.48% ( 0.49) | 43.51% ( -0.49) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 20.28% ( 0.41) | 79.72% ( -0.41) |
| Score Analysis |
| Sweden | Draw | Moldova |
| 1-0 @ 14.03% ( -0.18) 2-0 @ 11.25% ( -0.12)2-1 @ 9.37% ( 0.03)3-0 @ 6.02% ( -0.05)3-1 @ 5.01% ( 0.03)4-0 @ 2.41% ( -0.01)3-2 @ 2.08% ( 0.04)4-1 @ 2.01% ( 0.02)Other @ 3.45% Total : 55.62% | 1-1 @ 11.68% ( 0.01) 0-0 @ 8.75% ( -0.14)2-2 @ 3.9% ( 0.07)Other @ 0.63% Total : 24.96% | 0-1 @ 7.28% ( -0.01) 1-2 @ 4.86% ( 0.07)0-2 @ 3.03% ( 0.03)1-3 @ 1.35% ( 0.04)2-3 @ 1.08% ( 0.03)Other @ 1.8% Total : 19.4% |
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