SM
| Current Group F Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Belgium | 4 | 7 | 10 |
| 2 | Austria | 4 | 6 | 10 |
| 3 | Sweden | 4 | 5 | 6 |
| 4 | Estonia | 4 | -9 | 1 |
| 5 | Azerbaijan | 4 | -9 | 1 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Belgium win with a probability of 63.92%. A draw had a probability of 20.9% and a win for Estonia had a probability of 15.21%.
The most likely scoreline for a Belgium win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.75%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.63%) and 2-1 (9.82%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.92%), while for a Estonia win it was 0-1 (5.01%). The actual scoreline of 5-0 was predicted with a 1.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Belgium would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Belgium | Draw | Estonia |
63.92% ( -0.13) | 20.86% ( 0.08) | 15.21% ( 0.04) |
| Both teams to score 49.13% ( -0.17) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 53.61% ( -0.28) | 46.39% ( 0.28) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 31.33% ( -0.27) | 68.67% ( 0.27) |
| Belgium Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 86.19% ( -0.13) | 13.81% ( 0.13) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 58.84% ( -0.25) | 41.16% ( 0.25) |
| Estonia Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 57.01% ( -0.12) | 42.99% ( 0.12) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 20.72% ( -0.1) | 79.28% ( 0.1) |
| Score Analysis |
| Belgium | Draw | Estonia |
| 1-0 @ 11.75% ( 0.08) 2-0 @ 11.63% ( 0.03)2-1 @ 9.82% ( -0.01)3-0 @ 7.68% ( -0.02)3-1 @ 6.48% ( -0.03)4-0 @ 3.8% ( -0.02)4-1 @ 3.21% ( -0.03)3-2 @ 2.74% ( -0.02)5-0 @ 1.5% ( -0.02)4-2 @ 1.35% ( -0.02)5-1 @ 1.27% ( -0.02)Other @ 2.68% Total : 63.91% | 1-1 @ 9.92% ( 0.04) 0-0 @ 5.94% ( 0.07)2-2 @ 4.15% ( -0.01)Other @ 0.86% Total : 20.86% | 0-1 @ 5.01% ( 0.04) 1-2 @ 4.19% ( 0)0-2 @ 2.12% ( 0.01)1-3 @ 1.18% ( -0)2-3 @ 1.17% ( -0.01)Other @ 1.55% Total : 15.21% |
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