Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sagan Tosu win with a probability of 46.08%. A draw had a probability of 27.2% and a win for Shimizu S-Pulse had a probability of 26.74%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sagan Tosu win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.94%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.96%) and 2-1 (8.83%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.75%), while for a Shimizu S-Pulse win it was 0-1 (9.21%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Sagan Tosu would win this match.
