Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sagan Tosu win with a probability of 42.75%. A win for Vegalta Sendai had a probability of 30.07% and a draw had a probability of 27.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sagan Tosu win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.87%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.64%) and 2-0 (7.99%). The likeliest Vegalta Sendai win was 0-1 (9.55%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.84%). The actual scoreline of 5-0 was predicted with a 0.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Sagan Tosu would win this match.