We said: Alaves 1-1 Real Sociedad
Events will be dictated by the visitors' ability to patch together a functioning team from their few available players, and Alaves will sense an opportunity to pick up three valuable points on Sunday.
However, the home side's shortcomings in front of goal could cost them a rare win in this Basque derby, and La Real might well hold on for a draw.
Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Real Sociedad win with a probability of 61.85%. A draw had a probability of 22.3% and a win for Alaves had a probability of 15.84%.
The most likely scoreline for a Real Sociedad win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.2%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (12.08%) and 1-2 (9.65%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.54%), while for an Alaves win it was 1-0 (5.76%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 10.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 1-1 draw for this match.
