Almeria have picked up as many home points this season as Villarreal, with their hopes of staying in the league likely to depend on their form at home. Athletic are on a roll at the moment, winning three of their last four, but we have a feeling that the points will be shared during a tight contest.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Athletic Bilbao win with a probability of 53.9%. A draw had a probability of 25.2% and a win for Almeria had a probability of 20.93%.
The most likely scoreline for an Athletic Bilbao win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.41%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (10.64%) and 1-2 (9.41%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.85%), while for an Almeria win it was 1-0 (7.47%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 9.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Athletic Bilbao would win this match.
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