Given Atletico Madrid's strong defensive record, we expect the hosts to notch a fourth clean-sheet victory in five outings this weekend, piling pressure on Almeria at the opposite end of the table.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atletico Madrid win with a probability of 71.94%. A draw had a probability of 17.7% and a win for Almeria had a probability of 10.4%.
The most likely scoreline for an Atletico Madrid win was 2-0 with a probability of 13.14%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (11.8%) and 3-0 (9.75%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.39%), while for an Almeria win it was 0-1 (3.77%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Atletico Madrid would win this match.
0.27) 
-0.14) 
