Espanyol are better than what they have shown this season, but Athletic have been impressive, and we are expecting the hosts to triumph on Sunday. Inaki Williams's absence is a blow for the Basque side, but they should have enough quality to secure all three points.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Athletic Bilbao win with a probability of 66.39%. A draw had a probability of 21.6% and a win for Espanyol had a probability of 12.03%.
The most likely scoreline for an Athletic Bilbao win was 1-0 with a probability of 15.69%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (14.37%) and 2-1 (8.99%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.82%), while for a Espanyol win it was 0-1 (5.36%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 5.4% likelihood.
0.05) 
-0.03) 
