We said: Athletic Bilbao 2-1 Osasuna
Neither team can claim to be in their best form heading into their closing double-header, something which could make for a match mixed with quality and errors. Nevertheless, we feel that home advantage will prove key for Athletic, leading up to predict a narrow victory.
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Athletic Bilbao win with a probability of 53.72%. A draw had a probability of 25% and a win for Osasuna had a probability of 21.29%.
The most likely scoreline for an Athletic Bilbao win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.01%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.43%) and 2-1 (9.47%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.81%), while for a Osasuna win it was 0-1 (7.37%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 10.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Athletic Bilbao would win this match.