Sevilla are clearly a lot better than they have shown for much of the season, but this is a very difficult match for Sampaoli's side. Atletico have not been in top form at Wanda Metropolitano in 2022-23, but the Red and Whites impressed at Bernabeu last weekend, and we are expecting them to secure all three points here.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atletico Madrid win with a probability of 58.84%. A draw had a probability of 23.3% and a win for Sevilla had a probability of 17.85%.
The most likely scoreline for an Atletico Madrid win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.05%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.42%) and 2-1 (9.66%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.03%), while for a Sevilla win it was 0-1 (6.31%). The actual scoreline of 6-1 was predicted with a 0.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Atletico Madrid would win this match.
0.67) 
-0.49) 
