SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atletico Madrid win with a probability of 45%. A win for Athletic Bilbao had a probability of 27.79% and a draw had a probability of 27.2%.
The most likely scoreline for an Atletico Madrid win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.62%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.77%) and 2-0 (8.65%). The likeliest Athletic Bilbao win was 0-1 (9.34%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.8%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Atletico Madrid would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Atletico Madrid | Draw | Athletic Bilbao |
| 45% | 27.21% | 27.79% |
| Both teams to score 47.55% |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 42.64% | 57.36% |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 21.82% | 78.18% |
| Atletico Madrid Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 74.6% | 25.4% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 39.79% | 60.21% |
| Athletic Bilbao Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 63.75% | 36.25% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 26.96% | 73.04% |
| Score Analysis |
| Atletico Madrid | Draw | Athletic Bilbao |
| 1-0 @ 12.62% 2-1 @ 8.77% 2-0 @ 8.65% 3-1 @ 4.01% 3-0 @ 3.95% 3-2 @ 2.03% 4-1 @ 1.37% 4-0 @ 1.35% Other @ 2.24% Total : 45% | 1-1 @ 12.8% 0-0 @ 9.21% 2-2 @ 4.45% Other @ 0.75% Total : 27.21% | 0-1 @ 9.34% 1-2 @ 6.5% 0-2 @ 4.74% 1-3 @ 2.2% 0-3 @ 1.6% 2-3 @ 1.51% Other @ 1.9% Total : 27.79% |
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