Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atletico Madrid win with a probability of 48.45%. A win for Villarreal had a probability of 26.04% and a draw had a probability of 25.5%.
The most likely scoreline for an Atletico Madrid win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.48%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.34%) and 0-2 (8.84%). The likeliest Villarreal win was 1-0 (7.88%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.13%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with an 8.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Atletico Madrid would win this match.
