Although Osasuna have won their last two home games, their recent away form has been far less encouraging, having won just one of their last six away matches in La Liga.
Getafe, meanwhile, have won their previous two home meetings with Osasuna, and we think that they will make full use of the support at the Coliseum Alfonso Perez to clinch a narrow win on Sunday.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Getafe win with a probability of 52.52%. A draw had a probability of 27.5% and a win for Osasuna had a probability of 19.99%.
The most likely scoreline for a Getafe win was 1-0 with a probability of 16.34%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.44%) and 2-1 (8.56%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.22%), while for a Osasuna win it was 0-1 (8.73%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Getafe in this match and our data analysis correctly predicted the win for Getafe.
0.47) 
-0.64) 
