When you couple Osasuna's strong home form with Athletic Bilbao's impressive away record, all the signs point towards a close-fought battle at El Sadar.
Given that only the top six teams have conceded fewer goals than Osasuna and Athletic this season, we expect the European chasers to play out a low-scoring draw on Thursday.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Athletic Bilbao win with a probability of 38.31%. A win for Osasuna had a probability of 34.47% and a draw had a probability of 27.2%.
The most likely scoreline for an Athletic Bilbao win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.83%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.2%) and 0-2 (6.89%). The likeliest Osasuna win was 1-0 (10.15%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.9%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 6% likelihood.
0.22) 
-0.61) 
