Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Accrington Stanley win with a probability of 46.31%. A win for Burton Albion had a probability of 28.35% and a draw had a probability of 25.3%.
The most likely scoreline for an Accrington Stanley win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.52%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.25%) and 2-0 (8.08%). The likeliest Burton Albion win was 0-1 (7.84%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.04%). The actual scoreline of 4-4 was predicted with a 0.1% likelihood.
0.22) 
-0.28) 
