SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Birmingham City win with a probability of 42.46%. A win for Bolton Wanderers had a probability of 32.97% and a draw had a probability of 24.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Birmingham City win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.96%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.5%) and 2-0 (6.64%). The likeliest Bolton Wanderers win was 1-2 (7.73%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.46%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 6.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Birmingham City would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Birmingham City | Draw | Bolton Wanderers |
42.46% ( -0.88) | 24.56% ( 0.11) | 32.97% ( 0.78) |
| Both teams to score 58.52% ( -0.08) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 55.67% ( -0.23) | 44.33% ( 0.24) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 33.29% ( -0.23) | 66.71% ( 0.23) |
| Birmingham City Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 79.03% ( -0.49) | 20.97% ( 0.5) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 46.28% ( -0.78) | 53.72% ( 0.79) |
| Bolton Wanderers Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 74.05% ( 0.36) | 25.95% ( -0.36) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 39.04% ( 0.48) | 60.96% ( -0.48) |
| Score Analysis |
| Birmingham City | Draw | Bolton Wanderers |
| 2-1 @ 8.96% ( -0.09) 1-0 @ 8.5% ( -0.04)2-0 @ 6.64% ( -0.14)3-1 @ 4.67% ( -0.12)3-0 @ 3.46% ( -0.13)3-2 @ 3.15% ( -0.05)4-1 @ 1.82% ( -0.08)4-0 @ 1.35% ( -0.07)4-2 @ 1.23% ( -0.04)Other @ 2.7% Total : 42.46% | 1-1 @ 11.46% ( 0.06) 2-2 @ 6.04% ( 0)0-0 @ 5.44% ( 0.06)3-3 @ 1.42% ( -0.01)Other @ 0.2% Total : 24.56% | 1-2 @ 7.73% ( 0.12) 0-1 @ 7.34% ( 0.15)0-2 @ 4.95% ( 0.15)1-3 @ 3.48% ( 0.09)2-3 @ 2.72% ( 0.03)0-3 @ 2.23% ( 0.09)1-4 @ 1.17% ( 0.04)2-4 @ 0.92% ( 0.02)Other @ 2.44% Total : 32.97% |
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