SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bolton Wanderers win with a probability of 47.8%. A win for Crawley Town had a probability of 29.24% and a draw had a probability of 23%.
The most likely scoreline for a Bolton Wanderers win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.33%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.54%) and 0-2 (6.81%). The likeliest Crawley Town win was 2-1 (7.08%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.32%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 6.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Bolton Wanderers would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Crawley Town | Draw | Bolton Wanderers |
29.24% ( 0.04) | 22.95% ( 0.02) | 47.8% ( -0.05) |
| Both teams to score 62.34% ( -0.03) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 61.51% ( -0.05) | 38.48% ( 0.05) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 39.22% ( -0.05) | 60.77% ( 0.05) |
| Crawley Town Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 74.59% ( -0) | 25.4% ( 0) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 39.78% ( -0) | 60.21% ( 0) |
| Bolton Wanderers Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 83.57% ( -0.04) | 16.42% ( 0.04) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 53.9% ( -0.07) | 46.09% ( 0.07) |
| Score Analysis |
| Crawley Town | Draw | Bolton Wanderers |
| 2-1 @ 7.08% ( 0.01) 1-0 @ 5.72% ( 0.01)2-0 @ 3.92% ( 0.01)3-1 @ 3.23% ( 0)3-2 @ 2.92% ( -0)3-0 @ 1.79% ( 0)4-1 @ 1.11% ( 0)4-2 @ 1% Other @ 2.48% Total : 29.24% | 1-1 @ 10.32% ( 0.01) 2-2 @ 6.39% ( -0)0-0 @ 4.17% ( 0.01)3-3 @ 1.76% ( -0)Other @ 0.3% Total : 22.94% | 1-2 @ 9.33% ( -0) 0-1 @ 7.54% ( 0.01)0-2 @ 6.81% ( -0)1-3 @ 5.62% ( -0.01)0-3 @ 4.1% ( -0.01)2-3 @ 3.85% ( -0.01)1-4 @ 2.54% ( -0.01)0-4 @ 1.85% ( -0.01)2-4 @ 1.74% ( -0.01)1-5 @ 0.92% ( -0)Other @ 3.53% Total : 47.8% |
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