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EFL Cup | Third Round
Sep 25, 2024 at 7.45pm UK
Emirates Stadium
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Arsenal
5 - 1
Bolton

Rice (16'), Nwaneri (37', 49'), Sterling (64'), Havertz (77')
Calafiori (34')
FT(HT: 2-0)
Collins (53')

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Man City 2-2 Arsenal
Sunday, September 22 at 4.30pm in Premier League
Last Game: Bolton 5-2 Reading
Saturday, September 21 at 3pm in League One

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Arsenal win with a probability of 60.84%. A draw had a probability of 21.1% and a win for Bolton Wanderers had a probability of 18.08%.

The most likely scoreline for an Arsenal win was 2-0 with a probability of 9.99%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.96%) and 1-0 (9.95%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.91%), while for a Bolton Wanderers win it was 1-2 (4.94%). The actual scoreline of 5-1 was predicted with a 1.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Arsenal would win this match.

Result
ArsenalDrawBolton Wanderers
60.84% (-0.46899999999999 -0.47) 21.08% (0.176 0.18) 18.08% (0.297 0.3)
Both teams to score 54.61% (-0.021999999999998 -0.02)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
57.8% (-0.30399999999999 -0.3)42.2% (0.308 0.31)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
35.39% (-0.308 -0.31)64.61% (0.312 0.31)
Arsenal Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
86.58% (-0.235 -0.23)13.42% (0.238 0.24)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
59.63% (-0.476 -0.48)40.36% (0.479 0.48)
Bolton Wanderers Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
63.08% (0.14700000000001 0.15)36.92% (-0.145 -0.15)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
26.29% (0.15 0.15)73.7% (-0.14800000000001 -0.15)
Score Analysis
    Arsenal 60.84%
    Bolton Wanderers 18.08%
    Draw 21.08%
ArsenalDrawBolton Wanderers
2-0 @ 9.99% (-0.036999999999999 -0.04)
2-1 @ 9.96% (0.0020000000000007 0)
1-0 @ 9.95% (0.050000000000001 0.05)
3-0 @ 6.69% (-0.084 -0.08)
3-1 @ 6.67% (-0.058 -0.06)
4-0 @ 3.36% (-0.072 -0.07)
4-1 @ 3.35% (-0.059 -0.06)
3-2 @ 3.32% (-0.015 -0.02)
4-2 @ 1.67% (-0.023 -0.02)
5-0 @ 1.35% (-0.042 -0.04)
5-1 @ 1.35% (-0.036 -0.04)
Other @ 3.19%
Total : 60.84%
1-1 @ 9.91% (0.088000000000001 0.09)
2-2 @ 4.96% (0.021 0.02)
0-0 @ 4.95% (0.068000000000001 0.07)
3-3 @ 1.1% (-0.0010000000000001 -0)
Other @ 0.15%
Total : 21.08%
1-2 @ 4.94% (0.064 0.06)
0-1 @ 4.94% (0.087 0.09)
0-2 @ 2.46% (0.053 0.05)
2-3 @ 1.65% (0.014 0.01)
1-3 @ 1.64% (0.027 0.03)
Other @ 2.46%
Total : 18.08%

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Form Guide
Last Game: Man City 2-2 Arsenal
Sunday, September 22 at 4.30pm in Premier League
Last Game: Atalanta 0-0 Arsenal
Thursday, September 19 at 8pm in Champions League
Last Game: Spurs 0-1 Arsenal
Sunday, September 15 at 2pm in Premier League
Last Game: Arsenal 1-1 Brighton
Saturday, August 31 at 12.30pm in Premier League
Last Game: Aston Villa 0-2 Arsenal
Saturday, August 24 at 5.30pm in Premier League
Last Game: Arsenal 2-0 Wolves
Saturday, August 17 at 3pm in Premier League
Last Game: Bolton 5-2 Reading
Saturday, September 21 at 3pm in League One
Last Game: Bolton 0-4 Huddersfield
Saturday, September 14 at 3pm in League One
Last Game: Barrow 2-3 Bolton
Tuesday, September 3 at 7.45pm in EFL Trophy
Last Game: Bolton 0-2 Exeter
Saturday, August 31 at 3pm in League One
Last Game: Shrewsbury 0-2 Bolton
Tuesday, August 27 at 7.45pm in EFL Cup
Last Game: Charlton 2-0 Bolton
Saturday, August 24 at 3pm in League One


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