SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Derby County win with a probability of 59.25%. A draw had a probability of 22.8% and a win for Forest Green Rovers had a probability of 17.94%.
The most likely scoreline for a Derby County win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.34%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (11.13%) and 1-2 (9.78%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.83%), while for a Forest Green Rovers win it was 1-0 (6.01%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with an 11.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Derby County would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Forest Green Rovers | Draw | Derby County |
17.94% ( 0.02) | 22.8% ( 0.01) | 59.25% ( -0.02) |
| Both teams to score 48.82% ( 0.01) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 50.2% ( -0) | 49.79% ( 0) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 28.2% ( -0) | 71.8% ( 0) |
| Forest Green Rovers Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 58.43% ( 0.01) | 41.56% ( -0.01) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 21.94% ( 0.01) | 78.05% ( -0.01) |
| Derby County Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 83.54% ( -0.01) | 16.46% ( 0.01) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 53.84% ( -0.02) | 46.15% ( 0.02) |
| Score Analysis |
| Forest Green Rovers | Draw | Derby County |
| 1-0 @ 6.01% ( 0) 2-1 @ 4.76% ( 0)2-0 @ 2.64% ( 0)3-1 @ 1.39% ( 0)3-2 @ 1.26% ( 0)Other @ 1.89% Total : 17.94% | 1-1 @ 10.83% 0-0 @ 6.84% ( 0)2-2 @ 4.29% ( 0)Other @ 0.84% Total : 22.8% | 0-1 @ 12.34% 0-2 @ 11.13% ( -0.01)1-2 @ 9.78% ( -0)0-3 @ 6.7% ( -0)1-3 @ 5.88% ( -0)0-4 @ 3.02% ( -0)1-4 @ 2.65% ( -0)2-3 @ 2.58% 2-4 @ 1.16% ( -0)0-5 @ 1.09% ( -0)1-5 @ 0.96% ( -0)Other @ 1.96% Total : 59.25% |
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