Although Derby's form has tailed off in recent weeks, we think that they will prove to be too strong for an Oxford side who have lost eight of their last nine matches.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Derby County win with a probability of 48.39%. A win for Oxford United had a probability of 26.25% and a draw had a probability of 25.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Derby County win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.24%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.36%) and 0-2 (8.72%). The likeliest Oxford United win was 1-0 (7.77%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.06%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 2.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Derby County would win this match.
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