Derby have one of the best home records in the division this season, picking up 12 wins from their 18 games at Pride Park, so we think they will have enough quality to win this game.
In contrast, Fleetwood have struggled to find the back of the net in recent weeks, and the Rams have only lost twice on their home patch this term.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Derby County win with a probability of 77.36%. A draw had a probability of 15.5% and a win for Fleetwood Town had a probability of 7.18%.
The most likely scoreline for a Derby County win was 2-0 with a probability of 15.03%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (12.84%) and 3-0 (11.72%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.22%), while for a Fleetwood Town win it was 0-1 (3.09%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 0.9% likelihood.
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