As neither crop of players are brimming with confidence right now, do not expect a classic at the Pirelli Stadium, where further injuries to Burton's already-depleted squad may prove crucial.
In contrast, Derby are blessed with a few more options for change in the forward areas, and despite Burton's respectable stretch of home form, Warne's side can shut up shop after drawing first blood to belatedly get off the mark.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Derby County win with a probability of 57.55%. A draw had a probability of 23.4% and a win for Burton Albion had a probability of 19.03%.
The most likely scoreline for a Derby County win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.42%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (10.86%) and 1-2 (9.73%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.12%), while for a Burton Albion win it was 1-0 (6.36%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with a 6.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Derby County would win this match.
-0.07) 
0.01) 
