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League One | Gameweek 28
Apr 25, 2023 at 7.45pm UK
LNER Stadium
BA

Lincoln
0 - 1
Burton Albion

 
FT(HT: 0-0)
Ahadme (79')

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Wycombe 0-2 Lincoln
Saturday, April 22 at 3pm in League One
Last Game: Derby 1-0 Burton Albion
Saturday, April 22 at 3pm in League One

We said: Lincoln City 2-0 Burton Albion

Having conceded nine goals without reply across their previous two league games, Burton look set to suffer another disappointing defeat this weekend.    Given that Lincoln are among the division's lowest scorers, we are not likely to see a flurry of goals at LNER Stadium, but the hosts should cruise to a comfortable clean-sheet victory. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lincoln City win with a probability of 43.05%. A win for Burton Albion had a probability of 30.18% and a draw had a probability of 26.8%.

The most likely scoreline for a Lincoln City win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.44%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.76%) and 2-0 (7.9%). The likeliest Burton Albion win was 0-1 (9.2%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.7%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 9.2% likelihood.

Result
Lincoln CityDrawBurton Albion
43.05% (0.941 0.94) 26.77% (-0.018000000000001 -0.02) 30.18% (-0.92 -0.92)
Both teams to score 50.17% (-0.345 -0.34)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
45.36% (-0.252 -0.25)54.64% (0.256 0.26)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
24.02% (-0.21 -0.21)75.98% (0.212 0.21)
Lincoln City Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
74.84% (0.369 0.37)25.16% (-0.366 -0.37)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
40.13% (0.505 0.5)59.87% (-0.502 -0.5)
Burton Albion Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
67.03% (-0.794 -0.79)32.97% (0.796 0.8)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
30.45% (-0.891 -0.89)69.55% (0.893 0.89)
Score Analysis
    Lincoln City 43.05%
    Burton Albion 30.18%
    Draw 26.77%
Lincoln CityDrawBurton Albion
1-0 @ 11.44% (0.23 0.23)
2-1 @ 8.76% (0.081 0.08)
2-0 @ 7.9% (0.241 0.24)
3-1 @ 4.03% (0.08 0.08)
3-0 @ 3.63% (0.148 0.15)
3-2 @ 2.24% (-0.004 -0)
4-1 @ 1.39% (0.042 0.04)
4-0 @ 1.25% (0.063 0.06)
Other @ 2.4%
Total : 43.05%
1-1 @ 12.7% (-0.010000000000002 -0.01)
0-0 @ 8.29% (0.081999999999999 0.08)
2-2 @ 4.86% (-0.06 -0.06)
Other @ 0.91%
Total : 26.77%
0-1 @ 9.2% (-0.109 -0.11)
1-2 @ 7.05% (-0.164 -0.16)
0-2 @ 5.11% (-0.174 -0.17)
1-3 @ 2.61% (-0.119 -0.12)
0-3 @ 1.89% (-0.107 -0.11)
2-3 @ 1.8% (-0.062 -0.06)
Other @ 2.53%
Total : 30.18%

Read more!
Read more!
Form Guide
Last Game: Wycombe 0-2 Lincoln
Saturday, April 22 at 3pm in League One
Last Game: Lincoln 0-0 Barnsley
Tuesday, April 18 at 7.45pm in League One
Last Game: Lincoln 3-2 Port Vale
Saturday, April 15 at 3pm in League One
Last Game: Plymouth 0-2 Lincoln
Monday, April 10 at 3pm in League One
Last Game: Lincoln 2-0 Cheltenham
Friday, April 7 at 3pm in League One
Last Game: Sheff Weds 1-1 Lincoln
Saturday, April 1 at 3pm in League One
Last Game: Derby 1-0 Burton Albion
Saturday, April 22 at 3pm in League One
Last Game: Burton Albion 1-1 Bolton
Tuesday, April 18 at 7.45pm in League One
Last Game: Burton Albion 3-2 Sheff Weds
Saturday, April 15 at 3pm in League One
Last Game: Charlton 3-2 Burton Albion
Monday, April 10 at 3pm in League One
Last Game: Burton Albion 2-1 Barnsley
Friday, April 7 at 3pm in League One
Last Game: Cheltenham 0-0 Burton Albion
Saturday, April 1 at 3pm in League One


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