Both teams have drawn a lot of their recent games, so we expect this one to be no different, despite the disparity in the league standings. Burton have shown signs of improvement under Maamria, and managed to get a point at home against first-placed Plymouth Argyle, so they have the ability to do the same on Saturday.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Derby County win with a probability of 44.79%. A win for Burton Albion had a probability of 30.01% and a draw had a probability of 25.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Derby County win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.88%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.16%) and 0-2 (7.57%). The likeliest Burton Albion win was 1-0 (7.79%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.94%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with an 11.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 1-1 draw for this match.
-0.6) 
0.07) 
