Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Charlton Athletic win with a probability of 43.43%. A win for Port Vale had a probability of 30.01% and a draw had a probability of 26.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Charlton Athletic win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.29%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.84%) and 2-0 (7.91%). The likeliest Port Vale win was 0-1 (9.01%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.61%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 1.8% likelihood.
-0.12) 
0.06) 
