Manning will feel that he and his Oxford side are under pressure to deliver in this game, whereas Carlisle can play with a certain level of freedom. Despite those contrasting mentalities, we are backing Oxford to edge this fixture, potentially with a goal in the closing stages.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Carlisle United win with a probability of 40.53%. A win for Oxford United had a probability of 31.95% and a draw had a probability of 27.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Carlisle United win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.68%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.37%) and 0-2 (7.53%). The likeliest Oxford United win was 1-0 (10.07%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.99%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 10.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that Oxford United would win this match.
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