Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Oxford United win with a probability of 47.47%. A win for Cheltenham Town had a probability of 26.45% and a draw had a probability of 26.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Oxford United win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.95%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.17%) and 2-0 (8.86%). The likeliest Cheltenham Town win was 0-1 (8.35%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.37%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 1.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Oxford United would win this match.
Result | ||
Oxford United | Draw | Cheltenham Town |
47.47% ( 0.42) | 26.09% ( 0.01) | 26.45% ( -0.43) |
Both teams to score 49.85% ( -0.35) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
46.07% ( -0.29) | 53.93% ( 0.29) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
24.62% ( -0.24) | 75.38% ( 0.25) |
Oxford United Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
77.28% ( 0.07) | 22.72% ( -0.07) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
43.61% ( 0.1) | 56.39% ( -0.1) |
Cheltenham Town Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
64.5% ( -0.51) | 35.5% ( 0.51) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
27.74% ( -0.53) | 72.26% ( 0.53) |
Score Analysis |
Oxford United | Draw | Cheltenham Town |
1-0 @ 11.95% ( 0.16) 2-1 @ 9.17% ( 0.02) 2-0 @ 8.86% ( 0.14) 3-1 @ 4.53% ( 0.02) 3-0 @ 4.37% ( 0.08) 3-2 @ 2.35% ( -0.02) 4-1 @ 1.68% ( 0.01) 4-0 @ 1.62% ( 0.03) Other @ 2.94% Total : 47.47% | 1-1 @ 12.37% ( -0.01) 0-0 @ 8.06% ( 0.09) 2-2 @ 4.75% ( -0.06) Other @ 0.89% Total : 26.08% | 0-1 @ 8.35% ( -0.02) 1-2 @ 6.41% ( -0.09) 0-2 @ 4.33% ( -0.07) 1-3 @ 2.21% ( -0.06) 2-3 @ 1.64% ( -0.04) 0-3 @ 1.49% ( -0.04) Other @ 2.01% Total : 26.45% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
C | Plymouth ArgylePlymouth | 46 | 31 | 8 | 7 | 82 | 47 | 35 | 101 |
P | Ipswich TownIpswich | 46 | 28 | 14 | 4 | 101 | 35 | 66 | 98 |
3 | Sheffield WednesdaySheff Weds | 46 | 28 | 12 | 6 | 81 | 37 | 44 | 96 |
4 | Barnsley | 46 | 26 | 8 | 12 | 80 | 47 | 33 | 86 |
5 | Bolton WanderersBolton | 46 | 23 | 12 | 11 | 62 | 36 | 26 | 81 |
6 | Peterborough UnitedPeterborough | 46 | 24 | 5 | 17 | 75 | 54 | 21 | 77 |
7 | Derby CountyDerby | 46 | 21 | 13 | 12 | 67 | 46 | 21 | 76 |
8 | Portsmouth | 46 | 17 | 19 | 10 | 61 | 50 | 11 | 70 |
9 | Wycombe WanderersWycombe | 46 | 20 | 9 | 17 | 59 | 51 | 8 | 69 |
10 | Charlton AthleticCharlton | 46 | 16 | 14 | 16 | 70 | 66 | 4 | 62 |
11 | Lincoln CityLincoln | 46 | 14 | 20 | 12 | 47 | 47 | 0 | 62 |
12 | Shrewsbury TownShrewsbury | 46 | 17 | 8 | 21 | 52 | 61 | -9 | 59 |
13 | Fleetwood TownFleetwood | 46 | 14 | 16 | 16 | 53 | 51 | 2 | 58 |
14 | Exeter CityExeter | 46 | 15 | 11 | 20 | 64 | 68 | -4 | 56 |
15 | Burton Albion | 46 | 15 | 11 | 20 | 57 | 79 | -22 | 56 |
16 | Cheltenham TownCheltenham | 46 | 14 | 12 | 20 | 45 | 61 | -16 | 54 |
17 | Bristol Rovers | 46 | 14 | 11 | 21 | 58 | 73 | -15 | 53 |
18 | Port Vale | 46 | 13 | 10 | 23 | 48 | 71 | -23 | 49 |
19 | Oxford UnitedOxford Utd | 46 | 11 | 14 | 21 | 49 | 56 | -7 | 47 |
20 | Cambridge UnitedCambridge | 46 | 13 | 7 | 26 | 41 | 68 | -27 | 46 |
R | MK Dons | 46 | 11 | 12 | 23 | 44 | 66 | -22 | 45 |
22 | Morecambe | 46 | 10 | 14 | 22 | 47 | 78 | -31 | 44 |
R | Accrington StanleyAccrington | 46 | 11 | 11 | 24 | 40 | 77 | -37 | 44 |
R | Forest Green RoversForest Green | 46 | 6 | 9 | 31 | 31 | 89 | -58 | 27 |
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