Plymouth bounced back from a humiliating defeat at Peterborough by beating Charlton on Saturday, and they will realise three points against Derby in this one would go in a long way in securing their position in the top two.
The Rams need to find some consistency if they are to challenge the likes of the Pilgrims and Ipswich for a top-two berth, but we see Warne's men narrowly losing out on Tuesday night.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Plymouth Argyle win with a probability of 44.94%. A win for Derby County had a probability of 29.6% and a draw had a probability of 25.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Plymouth Argyle win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.27%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.14%) and 2-0 (7.76%). The likeliest Derby County win was 0-1 (8%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.09%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Plymouth Argyle in this match and our data analysis correctly predicted the win for Plymouth Argyle.
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