Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Derby County win with a probability of 50.6%. A win for Plymouth Argyle had a probability of 25.08% and a draw had a probability of 24.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Derby County win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.5%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.6%) and 2-0 (8.74%). The likeliest Plymouth Argyle win was 0-1 (6.93%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.53%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 1.9% likelihood.
-1.47) 
0.24) 
