SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Wigan Athletic win with a probability of 45.61%. A win for Carlisle United had a probability of 28.77% and a draw had a probability of 25.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Wigan Athletic win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.67%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.17%) and 2-0 (8.03%). The likeliest Carlisle United win was 0-1 (8.09%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.17%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with an 8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Wigan Athletic would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Wigan Athletic | Draw | Carlisle United |
45.61% ( 0.12) | 25.61% ( 0.02) | 28.77% ( -0.13) |
| Both teams to score 52.95% ( -0.14) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 49.32% ( -0.14) | 50.68% ( 0.14) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 27.42% ( -0.13) | 72.58% ( 0.12) |
| Wigan Athletic Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 77.81% ( -0.01) | 22.19% ( 0.01) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 44.4% ( -0.01) | 55.6% ( 0.01) |
| Carlisle United Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 68.05% ( -0.17) | 31.95% ( 0.17) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 31.6% ( -0.2) | 68.4% ( 0.2) |
| Score Analysis |
| Wigan Athletic | Draw | Carlisle United |
| 1-0 @ 10.67% ( 0.06) 2-1 @ 9.17% ( 0)2-0 @ 8.03% ( 0.04)3-1 @ 4.6% ( 0)3-0 @ 4.03% ( 0.02)3-2 @ 2.63% ( -0.01)4-1 @ 1.73% 4-0 @ 1.52% ( 0.01)4-2 @ 0.99% ( -0)Other @ 2.25% Total : 45.61% | 1-1 @ 12.17% 0-0 @ 7.09% ( 0.04)2-2 @ 5.23% ( -0.02)3-3 @ 1% ( -0.01)Other @ 0.11% Total : 25.6% | 0-1 @ 8.09% ( 0.01) 1-2 @ 6.95% ( -0.03)0-2 @ 4.62% ( -0.02)1-3 @ 2.64% ( -0.02)2-3 @ 1.99% ( -0.02)0-3 @ 1.76% ( -0.01)Other @ 2.73% Total : 28.77% |
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