Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Wigan Athletic win with a probability of 37.53%. A win for Port Vale had a probability of 34.49% and a draw had a probability of 28%.
The most likely scoreline for a Wigan Athletic win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.5%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (7.93%) and 0-2 (6.94%). The likeliest Port Vale win was 1-0 (10.91%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.15%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 1.7% likelihood.
0.55) 
-0.01) 
