Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Carlisle United win with a probability of 45.39%. A win for Northampton Town had a probability of 28.71% and a draw had a probability of 25.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Carlisle United win was 1-0 with a probability of 11%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.1%) and 2-0 (8.13%). The likeliest Northampton Town win was 0-1 (8.34%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.32%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 5.1% likelihood.
0.12) 
-0.03) 
