Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Colchester United win with a probability of 42.63%. A win for Carlisle United had a probability of 30.61% and a draw had a probability of 26.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Colchester United win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.32%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.73%) and 2-0 (7.78%). The likeliest Carlisle United win was 0-1 (9.25%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.7%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.7% likelihood.