Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Carlisle United win with a probability of 39.31%. A win for Harrogate Town had a probability of 35.16% and a draw had a probability of 25.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Carlisle United win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.1%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.57%) and 0-2 (6.45%). The likeliest Harrogate Town win was 1-0 (8.51%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.08%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 2.5% likelihood.
