Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Stevenage win with a probability of 38.03%. A win for Carlisle United had a probability of 34.17% and a draw had a probability of 27.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Stevenage win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.4%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.04%) and 0-2 (7%). The likeliest Carlisle United win was 1-0 (10.66%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.09%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 7.5% likelihood.
