Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Morecambe win with a probability of 44.15%. A win for Scunthorpe United had a probability of 28.3% and a draw had a probability of 27.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Morecambe win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.76%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.64%) and 2-0 (8.54%). The likeliest Scunthorpe United win was 0-1 (9.66%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.91%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 1.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Morecambe would win this match.