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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Gillingham win with a probability of 41.21%. A win for Newport County had a probability of 30.78% and a draw had a probability of 28%.
The most likely scoreline for a Gillingham win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.43%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.31%) and 0-2 (7.88%). The likeliest Newport County win was 1-0 (10.34%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.11%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 2.4% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Newport County | Draw | Gillingham |
30.78% ( -0.57) | 28.01% ( -0.35) | 41.21% ( 0.92) |
| Both teams to score 46.81% ( 0.77) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 40.96% ( 1.06) | 59.04% ( -1.06) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 20.5% ( 0.81) | 79.5% ( -0.81) |
| Newport County Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 65.16% ( 0.14) | 34.84% ( -0.14) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 28.43% ( 0.15) | 71.57% ( -0.15) |
| Gillingham Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 71.83% ( 1.03) | 28.17% ( -1.03) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 36.14% ( 1.28) | 63.86% ( -1.28) |
| Score Analysis |
| Newport County | Draw | Gillingham |
| 1-0 @ 10.34% ( -0.38) 2-1 @ 6.91% ( -0.03)2-0 @ 5.46% ( -0.18)3-1 @ 2.43% ( 0)3-0 @ 1.92% ( -0.06)3-2 @ 1.54% ( 0.04)Other @ 2.18% Total : 30.77% | 1-1 @ 13.11% ( -0.09) 0-0 @ 9.81% ( -0.4)2-2 @ 4.38% ( 0.11)Other @ 0.71% Total : 28.01% | 0-1 @ 12.43% ( -0.14) 1-2 @ 8.31% ( 0.18)0-2 @ 7.88% ( 0.14)1-3 @ 3.51% ( 0.17)0-3 @ 3.33% ( 0.15)2-3 @ 1.85% ( 0.1)1-4 @ 1.11% ( 0.08)0-4 @ 1.05% ( 0.08)Other @ 1.75% Total : 41.21% |
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