Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Gillingham win with a probability of 39.16%. A win for Newport County had a probability of 32.14% and a draw had a probability of 28.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Gillingham win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.64%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.93%) and 2-0 (7.54%). The likeliest Newport County win was 0-1 (11.15%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.29%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 7% likelihood.
0.02) 
-0.01) 
