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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Gillingham win with a probability of 43.61%. A win for Newport County had a probability of 30.94% and a draw had a probability of 25.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Gillingham win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.9%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.03%) and 2-0 (7.4%). The likeliest Newport County win was 0-1 (8.07%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.07%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 4.9% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Gillingham | Draw | Newport County |
43.61% ( 0.11) | 25.45% ( 0.02) | 30.94% ( -0.14) |
| Both teams to score 54.68% ( -0.13) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 51.02% ( -0.14) | 48.98% ( 0.13) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 28.93% ( -0.13) | 71.06% ( 0.12) |
| Gillingham Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 77.59% ( -0.01) | 22.4% ( 0) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 44.08% ( -0.01) | 55.91% ( 0) |
| Newport County Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 70.46% ( -0.17) | 29.54% ( 0.16) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 34.44% ( -0.2) | 65.55% ( 0.2) |
| Score Analysis |
| Gillingham | Draw | Newport County |
| 1-0 @ 9.9% ( 0.05) 2-1 @ 9.03% ( 0.01)2-0 @ 7.4% ( 0.04)3-1 @ 4.5% ( 0)3-0 @ 3.69% ( 0.02)3-2 @ 2.75% ( -0.01)4-1 @ 1.68% ( 0)4-0 @ 1.38% ( 0.01)4-2 @ 1.03% ( -0)Other @ 2.24% Total : 43.61% | 1-1 @ 12.07% ( 0.02) 0-0 @ 6.62% ( 0.04)2-2 @ 5.51% ( -0.02)3-3 @ 1.12% ( -0.01)Other @ 0.14% Total : 25.45% | 0-1 @ 8.07% ( 0.01) 1-2 @ 7.36% ( -0.03)0-2 @ 4.92% ( -0.02)1-3 @ 2.99% ( -0.02)2-3 @ 2.24% ( -0.02)0-3 @ 2% ( -0.02)1-4 @ 0.91% ( -0.01)Other @ 2.45% Total : 30.94% |
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