Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Gillingham win with a probability of 43.61%. A win for Newport County had a probability of 30.94% and a draw had a probability of 25.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Gillingham win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.9%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.03%) and 2-0 (7.4%). The likeliest Newport County win was 0-1 (8.07%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.07%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 4.9% likelihood.
0.11) 
-0.14) 
