Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Gillingham win with a probability of 59.12%. A draw had a probability of 22.9% and a win for Newport County had a probability of 17.99%.
The most likely scoreline for a Gillingham win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.43%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.15%) and 2-1 (9.76%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.87%), while for a Newport County win it was 0-1 (6.06%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 2.7% likelihood.
-0.04) 
0.01) 
