Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Swindon Town win with a probability of 45.83%. A win for AFC Wimbledon had a probability of 29.8% and a draw had a probability of 24.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Swindon Town win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.28%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.02%) and 2-0 (7.34%). The likeliest AFC Wimbledon win was 1-2 (7.23%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.41%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 3.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Swindon Town would win this match.
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